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Analysis

Special Subject: E-China
Peter Lovelock
Maverick Research Ltd.
October 18, 1999

Introduction

Over the last two decades, China has shown a huge love for everything electronic. By 1997, it had more than one colour television for every urban household. Cable TV has rolled out at a phenomenal rate, to reach more than 56 million households now. In telecoms, although the overall penetration rate remains low, the annual roll-out of fixed lines and mobile phones is extraordinary. Over the last few years, about 10 million new local subscribers have been added every year, while in 1998, some 11 million people became mobile phone users. The same is true for computers. With sales of PCs forecast at seven million to ten million over the next two years for 1999, China will be the world's third biggest computer market.

By all estimates, the same will be true for the Internet. From a handful of users in mid-1995, China officially had more than 2.1 million people on-line at the end of 1998. Unofficial estimates were much higher, and the total is set to grow exponentially over the next few years. But how does this make sense? Aren't China's rulers obsessed with controlling information? Can they be expected to make an exception for the Internet? Will the Internet in China develop with the same unfettered characteristics experienced in North America and Europe, or will it be forced into developing Chinese socialist characteristics?

This special subject looks at these questions by suggesting that China's acceptance -- and the Chinese leadership's acceptance -- of the Internet is not only not surprising, but downright predictable. On-line information networks in general, and the Internet in particular, make sense for China's sustained economic, political and social development. The only real surprise is that many foreigners seem to be having more trouble discovering this than the old Chinese technocrats who run the country.

I. China on-line: Real-time change or virtual reality? >>
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Introduction

I. China on-line: Real-time change or virtual reality?

II. Top down: It's All About the Network

III. It's the E-conomy, Stupid

IV. Controlling the content

V. Conclusion: The Thin Red Line

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